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Episode 37

My Week 11 NFL Predictions

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Hello and welcome this is Speak the Truth with Troy, I’m your host Troy Outlaw. Week 10 in the NFL was exciting to say the least, notable games included the Carolina Panthers’ narrow 20-17 victory over the New York Giants in Munich, marking a second straight win for the Panthers, and a possible resurgent Bryce Young. My Pittsburgh Steelers pulled out a strong win over the Washington Commanders. What was more impressive about this Steelers win, was the fact that the Steelers basically gave the Commanders 7 points with a failed fake punt on their own 16 yard line. The Kansas City Chiefs remained undefeated by narrowly defeating the Denver Broncos, while Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals surprised the Jets’ with a blowout win over the aging Arron Rogers…how about that Kyler Murray, he has one of the nicest passes in the NFL, a beautiful deep ball. Anyway let’s dive into my week 11 predictions.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

The Pittsburgh Steelers will face off against the Baltimore Ravens in a highly anticipated AFC North clash at  Acrisure Stadium. This is the first division game the Steelers have played this season. This matchup is significant as both teams are fighting for the lead of their division, with the Steelers holding a record of (7-2) and the Ravens at (7-3). The Ravens are favored by 31/2 points. I don’t agree with that.

Steelers

The Steelers are coming off a strong victory against the Washington Commanders, marking their biggest win of the season. They have shown resilience and improvement throughout the season, particularly in their last few games. Russell Wilson’s performance with the Pittsburgh Steelers has revitalized their offense, particularly enhancing his connection with receiver George Pickens. In the game against the Commanders, Wilson threw three touchdown passes, including a 16-yard score to Pickens, who made an impressive catch in the end zone. Wilson’s ability to spread the ball, including a crucial late-game touchdown to Mike Williams, has been key in the Steelers’ 3-game winning streak since he became the starter. The Wilson, Pickens connection is significant in Pittsburgh’s offensive resurgence.

Ravens

The Ravens have been a formidable opponent, featuring star quarterback Lamar Jackson, who is playing at a high level, and the addition of running back Derrick Henry has bolstered their ground game. 

Historically, the Steelers have had the upper hand in recent matchups against the Ravens, boasting a record of (7-1) in their last eight encounters. This trend adds an extra layer of intrigue to the game, as the Ravens will be looking to turn the tide and assert their dominance in the division. This game is crucial not only for playoff positioning but also for the rivalry between these two teams. Both squads are vying for a strong finish to the season, and a win could have significant implications for their playoff aspirations. 

Offensive Comparison

Pittsburgh Steelers:

The Steelers have shown a balanced offensive approach this season, effectively utilizing both their passing and running games. Quarterback Russell Wilson has been instrumental in leading the offense, showcasing his ability to make key throws under pressure. The Steelers’ receiving corps, featuring standout player George Pickens, has been productive, contributing significantly to their scoring. Additionally, their running game, led by Najee Harris, has been bolstered by a solid offensive line, allowing for effective ground attacks.

Baltimore Ravens:

The Ravens’ offense is characterized by its dynamic playmaking ability, primarily driven by Lamar Jackson. Known for his dual-threat capabilities, Jackson can both pass and run effectively, making the Ravens’ offense unpredictable. The addition of Derrick Henry has further strengthened their rushing attack, providing a powerful option in the backfield. The Ravens often utilize a run-heavy scheme, which can wear down defenses and create opportunities for big plays in the passing game.

Defensive Comparison

Pittsburgh Steelers:

Defensively, the Steelers have been known for their aggressive style, often applying pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Their defensive line is formidable, and they excel in creating turnovers. The secondary has also shown improvement, effectively covering receivers and limiting big plays. Overall, the Steelers’ defense is ranked among the top units in the league, with players like Cam Heyward, TJ Watt, and Patrick Queen the Steelers defense is a tough matchup for any offense.

Baltimore Ravens:

The Ravens boast a strong defensive unit as well, traditionally known for their physicality and discipline. They have a solid front seven, with players like Roquan Smith and Travis Jone, who excels in stopping the run and applying pressure on the quarterback. The secondary, featuring talented cornerbacks, is adept at defending against the pass, making it challenging for opposing offenses to find rhythm. The Ravens’ defense is also known for its ability to create turnovers, which can swing the momentum of games.

Both teams posses potent offenses and strong defenses. The Steelers rely on a balanced attack led by Wilson, while the Ravens leverage Jackson’s unique skill set and a powerful running game. Defensively, both teams are aggressive and capable of making game-changing plays, setting the stage for an exciting matchup in Week 11.

Steelers 35, Ravens 31

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

The Green Bay Packers will take on the Chicago Bears in a classic NFC North rivalry game at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers are favored by 61/2 points.

Packers

The Packers have been performing well this season, currently holding a record of (6-3). They are coming off a bye last week, in their last game they had a strong victory against the Minnesota Vikings, where quarterback Jordan Love threw three touchdown passes and showcased his ability to lead the offense effectively. The running game, led by Aaron Jones, has also been a key factor in their success.

Bears

The Bears, on the other hand, have struggled this season with a record of (3-6). The Bears fired OC Shane Waldron after the Bears scored 3 only points in Sunday’s loss to the Patriots. The Bears have shown flashes of potential but have been inconsistent, particularly in their offensive execution. If you’d like to get my early take on the Bears selecting Caleb Williams 1st overall check out episode 18 on my YouTube channel.  

Offensive Comparison

Green Bay Packers:

The Packers’ offense is led by quarterback Jordan Love, who has shown significant growth this season. He has been effective in the passing game, utilizing a mix of short and deep throws to keep defenses guessing. The receiving corps, including standout players like Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, has been productive, contributing to a balanced attack. The running game, spearheaded by Josh Jacobs, adds another dimension, allowing the Packers to control the tempo of the game and keep defenses honest.

Chicago Bears:

The Bears’ offense has been more inconsistent this season, primarily due to the development of young quarterback Caleb Williams. While Williams possesses good athleticism and the ability to make plays with his legs, he has struggled with consistency. The Bears have a solid running game, featuring D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson, which they rely on heavily. However, their passing attack has often been limited, which is puzzling with top tier receivers Keenan Allen and DJ Moore.

Defensive Comparison

Green Bay Packers:

Defensively, the Packers have been solid, with a strong front seven that excels at stopping the run. Their pass rush, led by players like Rashan Gary, has been effective in pressuring opposing quarterbacks. The secondary, featuring talented cornerbacks, has improved in coverage, limiting big plays and creating turnovers. Overall, the Packers’ defense is well-rounded and capable of making crucial stops when needed.

Chicago Bears:

The Bears have traditionally been known for their strong defense, and this season is no exception. They have a formidable front seven that can disrupt opposing offenses, particularly in the run game. However, their secondary has faced challenges, particularly against high-powered passing attacks. The Bears’ defense is aggressive and can create turnovers, but they need to improve their consistency to be truly effective.

Packer 24, Bears 10

Tennessee Titans vs Minnesota Vikings

The Tennessee Titans (2-7) will take on the Minnesota Vikings (7-2) at Nissan Stadium, in Tennessee. The Vikings are favored by 61/2 points, reflecting their stronger season performance compared to the Titans, who have only two wins so far. The Vikings are coming off two consecutive wins against the Colts and Jaguars, while the Titans have struggled offensively. Minnesota’s defense has been solid, allowing only 18.8 points per game, which could be a challenge for Tennessee’s offense.

Offensive and Defensive comparison

 Minnesota Vikings:

 The Vikings utilize a balanced offensive approach, featuring a strong passing game with qb Sam Donald and receiver Justin Jefferson enables their ability to stretch the field and create big plays while  complemented by a competent running game, with elite running back Arron Jones, making them versatile and unpredictable.

Tennessee Titans: 

In contrast, the Titans primarily rely on their rushing attack, however, their passing game has been inconsistent, with qb Will Levis often struggling to generate momentum or stretch defenses effectively. Defense

Minnesota Vikings

Defensively, the Vikings excel in creating turnovers and applying pressure on quarterbacks, which has led to a higher number of sacks and interceptions. Their defensive unit is generally effective at limiting scoring opportunities.

Tennessee Titans: 

The Titans boast a solid defense that excels in pass coverage, allowing them to limit opposing quarterbacks. However, they have faced challenges against the run, which can lead to vulnerabilities in high-pressure situations.

Vikings 24, Titans 7

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars will take on the Detroit Lions at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. The Lions, with a strong record of 7-1, are seen as title contenders, while the Jaguars are struggling at 2-8. Detroit is heavily favored by 13 points. The Lions’ quarterback Jared Goff has been performing well, while the Jaguars’ offense has been inconsistent, recently trying Mac Jones at quarterback.

Offensive and Defensive Comparison 

Offense:

Lions: 

Led by quarterback Jared Goff, the Lions boast a potent offense with key players like running back Jahmyr Gibbs and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. They are known for their explosive plays and efficient scoring ability.

Jaguars: 

The Jaguars’ offense, led by Trevor Lawrence, has struggled with consistency. Key players include running back Tank Bigsby and wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., Bigsby is questionable with a ankle sprain he suffered during the Jaguars vs Vikings game. This team as failed to live up to it’s expectations, especially the inconsistency of qb Trevor Lawrence. 

Defense:

Lions: 

Since Aidan Hutchinson’s injury, the Detroit Lions’ defense has faced challenges but also shown resilience.

Interior Line: Alim McNeill has stepped up as a key player, supported by DJ Reader, enhancing the run defense. The safety duo of Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph has been effective, contributing significantly to pass defense.

Weaknesses:

Pass Rush: The absence of Hutchinson and Marcus Davenport has weakened the pass rush, requiring players like Za’Darius Smith to fill the gap. The defense has been prone to giving up big plays, but which was showcased in their matchup against the Texans.

Jaguars: 

Despite struggles, the Jaguars have managed to maintain a decent pass rush, recording 20 sacks this season, which is on par with league averages.

In pass defense the Jaguars allow the most passing yards per game in the league and ranks poorly in interceptions, with only two recorded so far. They allow the second-most points and yards per game, indicating difficulties in preventing opponents from scoring. Injuries and inconsistent performances have plagued the unit, leading to an overall disappointing defensive season.

I think the Lions will cover the spread 

Lions 42, Jaguars 10

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas Raiders will take on the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins are favored by 7.5 points to win. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Raiders holding a 2-7 record and the Dolphins at 2-6. The Dolphins broke their losing streak with a big upset win over the Rams on Monday night. The Raiders have been averaging 18 points per game during their five-game losing streak, while opponents have averaged 30.8 points against them.

Offensive and Defensive Comparisons 

TSince Tua Tagovailoa’s return, the Miami Dolphins’ offense has shown significant improvement. His presence has revitalized the team’s offensive functionality, which had struggled during his absence due to a concussion. Tua return has reactivated key receivers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, enhancing their involvement and performance on the field. The Dolphins’ offense, previously ranked low in scoring, demonstrated a more dynamic and effective play style with Tua back, as evidenced in their Monday night win over the Rams.

The Las Vegas Raiders’ offense has struggled throughout the 2024 season. They have faced challenges in scoring consistently, averaging only 18 points during a five-game losing streak. The team has undergone multiple changes in offensive coordinators, with Scott Turner recently taking over as interim coordinator. Head coach Antonio Pierce has emphasized the need for improvement in efficiency, ball security, and red zone opportunities. Despite these efforts, the Raiders’ offense has yet to find a rhythm, contributing to their overall 2-7 record.

Defensively

The Miami Dolphins’ defense has performed well this season, becoming a key strength of the team. They have been effective in limiting opponents’ passing yards, allowing just 191.3 yards per game, and recently delivered a strong performance against the Los Angeles Rams, where they did not concede a touchdown. The defensive front, featuring players like Zach Seiler and Calais Campbell, has been particularly effective in pressuring quarterbacks, contributing to their overall defensive success.

The Las Vegas Raiders’ defense in the 2024 season has been a stronger aspect of their team compared to their offense. They have shown potential to be a top defense, with key players like Maxx Crosby contributing significantly. The defense has been able to keep games competitive, even against strong opponents, by performing well in the trenches and applying pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Despite the team’s overall struggles, the defense has managed to outperform expectations and remains a critical component of their game strategy.

Dolphins 24, Raiders 10

Los Angeles Rams vs New England Patriots 

The Los Angeles Rams (4-5) will face the New England Patriots (3-7) at Gillette Stadium. The Rams are favored by 5.½ points. 

Offensive and Defensive Comparisons 

The Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots present contrasting strengths and weaknesses. 

Offensively, the Rams are more dynamic with a balanced attack featuring experienced players like qb Matthew Stafford, and receivers Cooper Kupp and Pukq Nacua contributing to a more effective passing game. Rams are coming off a loss to the Dolphins on Monday night and are trying to get back to championship form.

In contrast, the Patriots struggle offensively, particularly in the passing game, relying on rookie Drake Maye impacts their ability to score consistently.

Defensively, the Rams are more robust, boasting a stronger pass rush and better turnover capabilities. 

The Patriots’ defense has been less effective, struggling against both the run and pass, which has led to challenges in keeping opponents’ scores low.

Rams 21, Patriots 14

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints will face the Cleveland Browns at Caesars Superdome. Both teams have struggled this season, holding identical records of 2-7. The Saints are slight favorites with a spread of -2.½ points. The Browns, coming off a bye week, will start Jameis Winston as quarterback against his former team. The Saints recently won their first game under interim head coach Darren Rizzi, aiming for a second consecutive victory.

Offensive and Defensive Comparisons 

Offensive Comparison:

New Orleans Saints: 

The Saints’ offense is led by Derek Carr, who provides stability and experience. They rely on Alvin Kamara for their ground game, which is a key component of their offensive strategy. The Saints aim to control the game tempo through balanced play-calling.

Cleveland Browns:

 The Browns have struggled offensively, with inconsistency at the quarterback position affecting their performance. Jameis Winston will start against the Saints, and minimizing turnovers will be crucial for their success. The Browns’ offense has potential but lacks cohesion.

Defensive Comparison:

New Orleans Saints: 

the Saints are more opportunistic, excelling in creating turnovers, particularly interceptions. They focus on disrupting the opposing quarterback and forcing mistakes.

Cleveland Browns: 

The Browns’ defense is more focused on pass rush, with a slightly higher sack count, thanks to all pro Miles Garrett. However, they struggle on the back end with corner and safety play, and rely on their front line to pressure the opponent.

Saints 21, Browns 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos

The Atlanta Falcons will face the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. The Broncos are 1.5-point favorites. Both teams are in playoff contention, making this a crucial matchup. The Falcons recently lost to the Saints, while the Broncos aim to recover from a narrow defeat to the Chiefs.

Offensive and Defensive Comparisons 

The Atlanta Falcons’ offense this season has been a key factor in their success, largely due to the addition of quarterback Kirk Cousins. They are averaging 24.6 points and 378.7 yards per game. Key contributors include Bijan Robinson in the rushing game and Darnell Mooney in receiving, both showing strong performances. The offensive line has improved, allowing the Falcons to maintain a balanced attack, which positions them well for a potential playoff run.

The Denver Broncos’ offense in the 2024 season has struggled significantly. They rank among the lowest in several key metrics, including EPA/Play and success rate, reflecting inefficiencies in both their passing and rushing attacks. The team has faced challenges with injuries and the development of a rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, which has impacted their offensive rhythm. Despite these struggles, there are opportunities for improvement against weaker defenses, and the Broncos have shown some potential for explosive plays.

Defense 

The Atlanta Falcons’ defense in the 2024 season has been average, ranking 20th in points allowed per game. They have struggled with consistency, particularly in generating pressure and turnovers, with only nine sacks and seven interceptions recorded so far. The defense has shown some ability to disrupt opposing offenses, achieving a season-high pressure rate against the Saints. However, their red zone defense and third-down efficiency need improvement to support their playoff aspirations.

The Denver Broncos’ defense has been a standout unit in the 2024 season, ranking near the top in several major categories. They have allowed only 256.5 yards per game and 13.8 points per game, making them one of the best defenses in the league. Under defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, the Broncos have excelled at pressuring quarterbacks with 31 sacks and creating turnovers with seven interceptions. The defense’s strong performance has been crucial in keeping the team competitive despite offensive struggles.

Broncos 17, Falcons 14

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks 

The San Francisco 49ers (6-3) will face the Seattle Seahawks (4-5) at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. The 49ers are favored by 6.5 points, reflecting their strong performance in recent matchups, including a victory over the Seahawks earlier this season, 36-24. The Seahawks are coming off a bye week and have struggled recently, losing five of their last six games. 

Offense and Defense Comparison 

Offense:

49ers: 

Known for their dynamic and versatile offense, the 49ers excel in creating explosive plays through both the air and ground, utilizing players like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. They have a strong offensive line that supports a potent rushing attack, even with injuries to key players like Christian McCaffrey.

Seahawks: 

The Seahawks rely on a fast-paced offense led by quarterback Geno Smith. While they can produce big plays, inconsistency and turnovers have been issues, particularly against strong defenses like the 49ers.

Defense:

49ers: Their defense is aggressive and capable of generating significant pressure on opposing quarterbacks, led by stars like Nick Bosa. However, they have struggled with missed tackles in recent games.

Seahawks: Seattle’s defense has been vulnerable to big plays and struggles with discipline, often allowing opponents to string together long drives. They have shown difficulty in containing high-powered offenses like San Francisco’s.

49ers 24, Seahawks 21

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium, the Bills home stadium. The Chiefs are undefeated at 9-0, while the Bills are strong contenders, opening as slight favorites with a 2.5-point advantage. Despite Kansas City’s perfect record, their wins have been narrow, and Buffalo has a solid home record. This matchup is highly anticipated and could preview an AFC Championship game.

Offensive and Defensive Comparisons 

Offensive Comparison:

Kansas City Chiefs: 

The Chiefs’ offense is led by Patrick Mahomes, known for his dynamic passing ability and strategic playmaking. They effectively exploit defensive weaknesses, utilizing key players like Travis Kelce for significant yardage gains. Their offensive strategy often includes explosive runs and deep passes, minimizing third-down situations.

Buffalo Bills: 

The Bills’ offense, led by Josh Allen, is versatile, balancing between passing and a strong running game. They rely on Allen’s dual-threat capability to drive the offense, often using running backs like James Cook to complement their aerial attack.

Defensive Comparison:

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs’ defense is known for making crucial adjustments and delivering strong performances when it matters most. Their secondary is particularly effective, contributing to their reputation as a high-powered defensive unit.

Buffalo Bills: The Bills’ defense is generally solid but has shown vulnerabilities against strong offenses like the Chiefs. They have struggled at times with pressure and stopping explosive plays, which can be a challenge against top-tier opponents.

Chiefs 35, Bills 34

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday Night Game)

The Cincinnati Bengals will face the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, at SoFi Stadium. The Bengals (4-6) are in a critical playoff race, needing a win after a recent loss to the Ravens. The Chargers (6-3) are favored by 2.5 points and are on a three-game winning streak under coach Jim Harbaugh. 

Offensive Comparison:

The Bengals’ offense is heavily reliant on their passing game, led by Joe Burrow and star receiver Ja’Marr Chase. They focus on explosive plays through the air, as evidenced by their recent high-scoring performances against teams like the Baltimore Ravens. However, they have struggled against stronger defenses, which have managed to limit their scoring.

The Chargers, under Justin Herbert, balance their attack with a strong running game featuring J.K. Dobbins, complementing their aerial threats and creating versatile offensive schemes. While Justin Herbert leads a competent passing attack, they also emphasize ball control and a methodical pace, as seen in their game against the Tennessee Titans. This approach helps them manage the clock and maintain possession, although they have not scored more than 27 points in a game this season.

Defensive Comparison:

Cincinnati’s defense emphasizes a strong secondary, often focusing on coverage to limit big plays, while their front line aims to apply pressure. The Bengals’ defense has struggled overall, ranking low in defensive metrics like points allowed per game. However, they have shown recent improvements, especially in generating pressure with players like Trey Hendrickson leading the pass rush. Their secondary has been inconsistent but has occasionally stepped up with key interceptions.

The Chargers boast a more aggressive defensive strategy, prioritizing pass rush and creating turnovers, which can disrupt opposing offenses effectively. The Chargers boast one of the league’s top defenses, excelling in limiting points and generating sacks. They have not allowed more than 20 points in any game this season and lead the NFL in points allowed per game. Their defense is particularly strong against the pass, ranking high in passing defense metrics.

Sorry Bengals fans but i’m not picking against a Jim Haurbaugh led team

Chargers 28, Bengals 27

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys (Monday Night Game)

The Dallas Cowboys (3-6) will host the Houston Texans (6-4) at AT&T Stadium for a primetime matchup. Both teams are coming off losses; the Cowboys suffered a blowout against the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Texans lost after squandering a double-digit lead to the Detroit Lions. The Texans are favored by 7.5.

Offensive and Defensive Comparisons

Offensive Comparison:

Houston Texans: The Texans’ offense is built around a strong passing game led by quarterback C.J. Stroud. The team features a talented receiving corps, including Nico Collins and John Metchie III, who have shown potential to make significant plays. Despite injuries to key players like Stefon Diggs, the Texans have leaned on their running game with Joe Mixon as a central figure. The offensive line has faced challenges, impacting both pass protection and run blocking, but the return of healthy receivers is expected to bolster their performance moving forward.

Dallas Cowboys: Without Dak Prescott, the Dallas Cowboys have struggled significantly. After Prescott’s injury, the team experienced a blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, managing only 146 yards of offense and turning the ball over five times. The Cowboys’ offense has lacked effectiveness and creativity, with backup quarterback Cooper Rush and Trey Lance unable to provide the necessary spark. Trey Lance saw his first action in two taking over for a benched Cooper Rush in the 4th quarter. The team is now 3-6 and facing challenges in maintaining competitiveness without their star quarterback.Without Dak Prescott, the Cowboys have struggled offensively, showing limited creativity and effectiveness in their play-calling. Their ground game has been inconsistent, and they often depend on big plays from receivers like CeeDee Lamb.

Defensive Comparison:

Houston Texans: The Texans has been a strong point for the team, particularly in the secondary. They have excelled in creating turnovers, with notable performances from players like rookie safety Calen Bullock and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. The defense ranks high in limiting passing yards and has shown resilience despite injuries to key players like Foley Fatukasi and Kamari Lassiter. However, they have struggled with red zone efficiency and have allowed some explosive plays earlier in the season, which they are working to address

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys’ defense has faced significant challenges, struggling to contain opposing offenses effectively. They have been particularly vulnerable against the run, allowing historically high rushing yards and touchdowns early in the season. Key players like DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons lead the defensive line, but overall performance has been inconsistent. The secondary, featuring Trevon Diggs and Donovan Wilson, has also struggled to prevent big plays, contributing to the team’s defensive woes. Despite individual talents, the Cowboys’ defense has not met expectations this season.

Texans 35, Cowboys 10


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