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Episode 39

My Week 13 NFL Predictions

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 Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

The Week 13 matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals is set for December 1, 2024, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The Bengals, currently at 4-7, are in a must-win situation to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, while the Steelers stand at 8-3. Bengals linebacker Germaine Pratt has guaranteed a win over the Steelers, adding intensity to this AFC North rivalry. The Steelers, led by quarterback Russell Wilson, aim to bounce back from a recent loss to the Browns. Bookmakers predict a close contest with Cincinnati slightly favored

The Bengals favored by 1.5 points, with a total over/under of 47. The moneyline is -130 for Cincinnati and +110 for Pittsburgh.

Offensive Comparison

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers average 4.8 yards per play for the season, which has slightly decreased to 4.5 over their last three games. They utilize 11 Personnel on 79% of their snaps, emphasizing a balanced attack with one running back and one tight end.

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals average 5.2 yards per play, increasing to 6.3 in recent games. They also heavily use 11 Personnel (81.8%) and have a high pass rate, throwing on 66% of their offensive snaps.

Defensive Comparison

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers allow 5.4 yards per play overall and have improved to 4.8 in recent games. They have a strong turnover differential (+11) and are effective in limiting rushing touchdowns.

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals’ defense is struggling, allowing 6.1 yards per play, the worst in the league over the past three games. Despite this, they have managed to maintain a turnover differential of +10.

Steelers 24, Bengals 21

 Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

The Week 13 NFL matchup between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions is set to take place at Ford Field on Friday, November 29, 2024, at 4:30 AM AEDT. The Lions are favored to win, with a 64% chance according to Stats Insider’s predictive model. The betting odds have the Lions as 11-point favorites, with the over/under set at 48.5 points. The Lions, led by quarterback Jared Goff, have been strong offensively and defensively this season, while the Bears will rely on rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.

The moneyline for the Week 13 matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions is set at +430 for the Bears and -600 for the Lions

Offensive Comparison

Chicago Bears:

The Bears have struggled offensively, particularly with their passing game. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has faced challenges, contributing to the team’s inconsistency.

Their offensive line has been a weak point, allowing 41 sacks and being highly penalized, which disrupts their offensive flow.

In rushing, they have accumulated 1,152 yards with a modest average of 4.144 yards per carry.

Detroit Lions:

The Lions boast a high-powered offense led by Jared Goff, ranking among the league’s best in total yards and points scored.

They have a strong passing game with 2,425 yards and 22 touchdowns, significantly outperforming the Bears.

Their rushing attack is also robust, with 1,522 yards and an average of 4.712 yards per carry.

Defensive Comparison

Chicago Bears:

The Bears’ defense has struggled to meet expectations, contributing to their recent losing streak.

They have allowed more first downs and have been less effective in creating turnovers compared to the Lions.

Detroit Lions:

The Lions’ defense is formidable, anchored by players like Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. They excel in limiting opponents’ offensive production.

They have been effective in creating turnovers and maintaining strong defensive pressure, with fewer yards allowed per play compared to the Bears.

Lions 35, Bears 24

Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins

The Week 13 NFL matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins is set for Thursday, November 28, 2024, at Lambeau Field. The Packers, with a record of 6-3, are favored to win against the 2-6 Dolphins, with betting odds placing them as 3.5-point favorites. The Packers have a 61% chance of victory according to predictive models. The game is expected to be competitive. Key players include Jordan Love for the Packers and Tua Tagovailoa for the Dolphins.

Offense Comparison:

*Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins have transformed their offense to focus on sustaining drives and wearing down defenses, rather than relying solely on explosive plays. They rank fifth in the league in plays per drive and have one of the lowest rates of three-and-outs. Despite this, they struggle against stronger defenses, averaging only 16 points per game against playoff-caliber teams.

*Green Bay Packers: The Packers’ offense has been inconsistent, struggling with execution and facing frequent second and third-and-long situations. They have a versatile skill set but lack the explosive impact seen in the Dolphins’ offense.

Defense Comparison:

*Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins’ defense has shown resilience, often holding opponents to field goals despite challenging field positions. They rely heavily on aggressive play and individual performances, such as those from Christian Wilkins.

*Green Bay Packers: The Packers’ defense is more focused on pass rushing but struggles with run defense due to a lack of emphasis on developing run-stopping abilities. They often play with light boxes, which exacerbates their vulnerability against the run.

Packers 35, Dolphins 31

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders 

In Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a win against the Panthers, and are expected to dominate the Raiders, who have struggled under coach Antonio Pierce with a 2-8 record. Kansas City is favored by 11.5 points in betting lines. The Chiefs have a strong probability of winning, with a 71% chance according to simulations. This matchup will take place at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on November 29, 2024.

Offensive Comparison:

*Kansas City Chiefs:

The Chiefs have a potent offense, averaging 5.1 yards per play and 348 total net yards per game. Patrick Mahomes, despite a less stellar season, leads the offense with 1,389 passing yards and six touchdowns. The team has a strong rushing attack, averaging 128.8 yards per game.

*Las Vegas Raiders:

The Raiders struggle offensively, averaging 4.2 yards per play and only 234 total net yards per game. Gardner Minshew has been inconsistent with turnovers, having eight interceptions over six games. Their rushing game is weak, with only 33 rushing yards in a recent matchup against the Chiefs.

Defensive Comparison:

*Kansas City Chiefs:

The Chiefs have a formidable defense, ranked second against the run, allowing only 3.3 yards per carry. They are aggressive with blitzes and have a strong pass defense, allowing just 215.7 passing yards per game.

*Las Vegas Raiders:

The Raiders’ defense has shown resilience, holding opponents like Matthew Stafford to low yardage and forcing turnovers. However, they struggle against the run and need to improve to contain the Chiefs’ balanced offensive attack.

Chiefs 28, Raiders 10

Arizona Cardinals vs Minnesota Vikings

The Week 13 NFL matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings is scheduled for December 1, 2024, at U.S. Bank Stadium, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET. The Vikings are favored to win, with a 55% probability according to predictive models. The betting odds list the Vikings as 2-point favorites, with a moneyline of -135 compared to the Cardinals’ +114. 

Offensive Comparison

*Arizona Cardinals

Quarterback: Kyler Murray is key to their offense, but recent performances have been inconsistent. Recent Form: Struggled offensively in a loss to Seattle, scoring only six points.

*Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: Led by Sam Darnold, the Vikings’ offense is performing at a high level. Recent Form: Strong offensive performances have contributed to a four-game winning streak.

Defensive Comparison

*Arizona Cardinals

Performance: Ranked 16th in fantasy points among defenses, with 11 sacks and 5 interceptions this season. Challenges: Need to improve to contain Minnesota’s passing attack.

*Minnesota Vikings

Performance: Ranked 1st in fantasy points among defenses, with 20 sacks and 11 interceptions.

Recent Issues: Allowed over 300 passing yards in their last game but still managed to secure a win.

Vikings 27, Cardinals 24

Los Angeles Chargers vs  Atlanta Falcons

In Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season, the Los Angeles Chargers will face the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 1, 2024, at 1:00 PM ET. The Falcons are slightly favored with a 58% win probability according to simulations. Betting odds show the Falcons as narrow underdogs with a spread of +1.5 and an over/under of 47.5 points. Despite Atlanta’s recent struggles, predictions suggest a close game, with potential final scores around 24-22 in favor of the Falcons

The Los Angeles Chargers and Atlanta Falcons present contrasting strengths and weaknesses in their offensive and defensive capabilities.

Offensive Comparison

*Chargers: Known for a strong offensive performance, the Chargers have been effective in scoring and maintaining offensive pressure. Their ability to capitalize on the Falcons’ weaker defensive stats could be crucial.

*Falcons: Despite leading the NFC South, the Falcons’ offense has been inconsistent, as seen in their recent heavy loss to the Broncos. They need to improve their offensive execution against a robust Chargers defense.

Defensive Comparison

*Chargers: Defensively, the Chargers are more formidable, ranking higher in fantasy points with 13 sacks and 5 interceptions this season. Their defense is expected to challenge the Falcons’ offense significantly.

*Falcons: The Falcons’ defense ranks lower, with fewer sacks and interceptions, indicating potential vulnerabilities against the Chargers’ offense. Their defensive struggles could impact their performance in this matchup.

Chargers 21, Falcons 17

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The Week 13 NFL matchup between the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars is scheduled for Sunday, December 1, 2024, at EverBank Stadium, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET. The Jaguars are slightly favored to win, with a 55% chance according to predictive models. Betting odds show the Texans as marginal favorites with a moneyline of -112, while the Jaguars are at -108. The over/under for total points is set at 47. The Jaguars are coming off a bye week, allowing extra preparation time

Offensive Comparison:

*Texans: Led by quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans’ offense is potent, with Stroud throwing for 345 yards and two touchdowns in their last matchup against the Jaguars. Nico Collins is a key target, recording 151 receiving yards and a touchdown in that game.

*Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence leads the Jaguars’ offense, throwing for 169 yards and two touchdowns in their last game against the Texans. The team struggled to capitalize on opportunities, with Lawrence’s performance hindered by a lack of protection and execution in critical moments.

Defensive Comparison:

*Texans: The Texans’ defense showed resilience by forcing key stops, including a goal-line stand against the Jaguars. They pressured Lawrence effectively, contributing to his struggles.

*Jaguars: The Jaguars’ defense had moments of strong play but ultimately allowed Stroud to lead a game-winning drive. They struggled to contain big plays from Houston’s receivers and running backs.

Texans 28, Jaguars 14

Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots

The Week 13 NFL matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots is set for December 1, 2024, at Gillette Stadium, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET. The Colts, with a record of 5-7, are favored to win against the 3-9 Patriots, holding a 64% win probability. Both teams have struggled recently, with the Colts losing four of their last five games and the Patriots coming off a loss to the Miami Dolphins.

Offensive Comparison:

*Indianapolis Colts: The Colts average 21.45 points per game, with 202.18 passing yards and 118.55 rushing yards per game. They have a higher yards per play at 5.43 compared to the Patriots.

*New England Patriots: The Patriots score 16.55 points per game, with 165.91 passing yards and 115.18 rushing yards per game. They average 4.59 yards per play.

Defensive Comparison:

*Indianapolis Colts: The Colts have recorded 22 sacks, 8 interceptions, and forced 11 fumbles, recovering 9 of them.

*New England Patriots: The Patriots have managed 25 sacks, but only 4 interceptions and forced fumbles, recovering the same number

Colts 21, Patriots 13

 New York Jets vs Seattle Seahawks

The Week 13 NFL matchup between the New York Jets and the Seattle Seahawks is set for December 1, 2024, at MetLife Stadium. The game kicks off at 1:00 PM ET. Predictions favor the Jets, with a 64% win probability according to simulations by Dimers and Stats Insider. The Jets are slightly favored in betting markets, with odds showing them as 4.5-point favorites. The Seahawks, however, have a recent history of success against the Jets, winning their last five matchups. Both teams are expected to rely on strong defensive performances in this encounter.

Offensive Comparison

*New York Jets

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 2,442 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.

Running Game: Breece Hall leads with 632 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. Receiving: Garrett Wilson has 722 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns.

*Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback: Geno Smith has 2,781 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.

Running Game: Kenneth Walker III has rushed for 452 yards and 7 touchdowns. Receiving: Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 678 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.

Defensive Comparison

*New York Jets

Sacks: 47.8

Interceptions: 14.5

Points Allowed: 339.2

Yards Allowed: 5,162.2.

*Seattle Seahawks

Sacks: 45.1

Interceptions: 12.6

Points Allowed: 394.4

Yards Allowed: 5,826.9.

Seahawks 24, Jets 10

 Tennessee Titans vs Washington Commanders

The Week 13 NFL matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Washington Commanders is set for December 1, 2024, at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland. The Commanders, with a record of 7-5, are favored by 6 points against the 3-8 Titans. The Titans recently secured an upset victory over the Houston Texans, showcasing strong performances from quarterback Will Levis and running back Tony Pollard. Meanwhile, the Commanders have lost three consecutive games and are looking to rebound. The game’s over/under is set at 44 points.

Offensive Comparison

*Washington Commanders:

Offense Ranking: 9th overall, with the fifth-highest scoring offense (27.3 points per game).

Key Players: Jayden Daniels (QB) has shown strong performances, and Terry McLaurin is a significant receiving threat.

*Tennessee Titans:

Offense Ranking: 28th overall, struggling with consistency and scoring, especially in the fourth quarter. Key Players: Will Levis (QB) has improved recently, leading the Titans to a victory in Week 12.

Defensive Comparison

*Washington Commanders:

Defense Ranking: 29th overall, struggling to support their offense.

Defensive Stats: 30 sacks, 4 interceptions, and 7 fumble recoveries.

*Tennessee Titans:

Defense Ranking: 19th overall, strong in pass defense (allowing 169.6 yards per game).

Defensive Stats: 24 sacks, 5 interceptions, and 4 fumble.

Commanders 27, Titans 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers

The Week 13 NFL matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers is set for December 1, 2024, at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, with kickoff at 4:05 PM ET. The Buccaneers, with a record of 5-6, are favored by six points over the Panthers, who are 3-8. Despite the Buccaneers being favorites, the Panthers have shown recent improvement, particularly with quarterback Bryce Young’s performance. Predictions suggest a close game, with simulations giving the Buccaneers a 60% chance to win the game.

Offensive Comparison

*Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have shown a more consistent offensive performance, highlighted by a recent game where Baker Mayfield threw for 294 yards and led the team to a 30-7 victory over the Giants. Tampa Bay’s offense is capable of generating significant yardage, with recent performances showing 450 total yards and 24 first downs against weaker defenses.

*Carolina Panthers

The Panthers’ offense ranks 26th in power rankings, averaging 17.6 points per game, placing them 27th in the NFL.

Despite a slow start, Carolina has improved offensively, scoring 20 or more points in three consecutive games.

Defensive Comparison

*Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers’ defense is stronger, ranking 14th in fantasy points among defenses.

They have recorded 17 sacks, 5 interceptions, and forced 8 fumbles this season.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers’ defense ranks last in fantasy points among defenses. They have struggled with only 6 sacks, 3 interceptions, and forcing just 2 fumbles this season.

Bucs 21, Panthers 17

Los Angeles Rams vs  New Orleans Saints

The Week 13 NFL matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the New Orleans Saints is set for December 1, 2024, at Caesars Superdome. The Rams, with a 5-6 record, are slight favorites over the 4-7 Saints, with betting odds showing the Rams at -3 points and an over/under of 48.5 points. The Saints have shown improvement under interim coach Darren Rizzi and are coming off a bye week, which could give them a rest advantage. Predictions vary, with some favoring the Rams due to their overall performance, while others highlight the Saints’ potential to cover the spread.

Offensive Comparison:

*Los Angeles Rams:

Average 21.2 points per game. Total offensive yards: 3,650 with 15 passing touchdowns and 9 rushing touchdowns. Average 95.1 rushing yards per game, ranked 26th in the league.

*New Orleans Saints:

Average 23.8 points per game, ranked 11th. Total offensive yards: average of 347.4 per game.

Average 130.7 rushing yards per game.

Defensive Comparison:

*Los Angeles Rams:

Concede an average of 25.1 points per game, ranked 26th. Allow 362.5 total yards per game, including 144.3 rushing yards. New Orleans Saints: Concede an average of 23.6 points per game, ranked 21st. Allow an average of 256.6 passing yards per game, ranked 30th.

Rams 17, Saints 14

Philadelphia Eagles vs Baltimore Ravens

The Week 13 NFL matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens is set for December 1, 2024, at M&T Bank Stadium. The Eagles, with a record of 9-2, are on a seven-game winning streak and are led by MVP candidate Saquon Barkley. The Ravens, at 8-4, recently defeated the Chargers and are led by Lamar Jackson. Betting odds slightly favor the Ravens as 2.5-point favorites. Experts predict a close game, with some favoring the Eagles due to their strong offensive performance and recent form.

Offensive Comparison:

*Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles boast a powerful offense, largely due to MVP candidate Saquon Barkley, who leads the league in average yards per rush (6.2). They have consistently scored 26 or more points in recent games, with a strong downfield passing game led by Jalen Hurts.

*Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens also have a formidable offense, featuring Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, making them one of the top rushing teams. They have scored 30 or more points in three of their last four games.

Defensive Comparison:

*Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles’ defense is robust, allowing only 175.5 passing yards per game, ranking third in the NFL. They have held opponents to 20 or fewer points in six of their last seven games.

*Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens’ defense excels against the run, allowing just 77.9 rushing yards per game, second in the league. However, they struggle with penalties, being the most penalized team in the NFL.

Eagles 38, Ravens 31

San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills

The Week 13 NFL matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Buffalo Bills is set for Sunday, December 1, 2024, at Highmark Stadium, with kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Bills, holding a 9-2 record, are coming off a bye week and are favored by seven points against the 5-6 49ers. The 49ers are struggling with injuries, including key players like Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa listed as questionable.

Offensive Comparison

*Buffalo Bills

Strengths: The Bills boast a high-powered offense led by Josh Allen, ranking 3rd in the league. They excel in explosive plays and red zone efficiency. Average Points: 29.1 points per game.

Key Players: Josh Allen (QB), James Cook (RB).

*San Francisco 49ers

Strengths: The 49ers’ offense is ranked 13th, with Brock Purdy as a key player if healthy.

Average Points: 23.6 points per game. Challenges: Struggling with injuries, which could impact performance.

Defensive Comparison

*Buffalo Bills

Strengths: Ranked 7th in defense, they are effective at creating turnovers and sacking quarterbacks. Average Points Allowed: 19.5 points per game. 

*San Francisco 49ers

Strengths: Despite challenges, the defense is capable but ranks 20th overall. Average Points Allowed: 23.6 points per game. Challenges: Key injuries, including Nick Bosa, could weaken their defensive capabilities.

Bills 35, 49ers 24

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns

The Week 13 NFL matchup between the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns is a Monday night game set for December 2, 2024, at Empower Field at Mile High. The Broncos, with a 7-5 record, are 5.5-point favorites against the 3-8 Browns. Denver is led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who has been impressive with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in his last three games. The Browns, coming off a victory against the Steelers, rely on Jameis Winston as their quarterback. Denver’s strong home performance and Cleveland’s aggressive defense will be key factors in this game.

The Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns present contrasting strengths in their Week 13 matchup.

Offensive Comparison

*Broncos: Denver averages 22.0 points per game, ranking 18th in the NFL. They have accumulated 2,423 passing yards and 1,339 rushing yards this season.

*Browns: Cleveland scores an average of 16.9 points per game, ranking lower in offensive production. They have gained 3,217 total yards, with a struggling run game averaging 88.2 yards per game.

Defensive Comparison

*Broncos: Denver’s defense is strong, allowing only 16.8 points per game, ranking 3rd in the league. They have given up 199.8 passing yards and 96.2 rushing yards per game.

*Browns: Cleveland allows 24.3 points per game and ranks 21st in defensive DVOA. Their defense is aggressive, leading the league in pressure rate.

Broncos 24, Browns 17


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